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What's up on the Ruta Pantera?
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La nueva ronda de aranceles anunciada por Estados Unidos reabre las tensiones comerciales con Brasil y podría afectar el comercio, la inversión y los viajes de negocios entre las dos mayores economías del continente americano. 
Hemisphere |
HEMISPHERE -------------------------------3184NEWS STORY | |||
Los nuevos aranceles de Trump tensan la relación comercial con BrasilLa ofensiva arancelaria abre un nuevo capítulo de incertidumbre para el comercio, las inversiones y los viajes.La administración del presidente Donald Trump anunció la imposición de un arancel del 25 %sobre una amplia gama de productos brasileños que ingresan a Estados Unidos, una medida que entrará en vigor el 22 de julio y que marca una nueva escalada en la relación comercial entre ambos países. Aunque varios de los principales productos de exportación de Brasil quedaron temporalmente exentos, la decisión afecta a miles de bienes industriales y agrícolas y podría modificar el flujo comercial entre las dos mayores economías del hemisferio occidental. La medida fue adoptada tras una investigación realizada bajo la Sección 301 de la Ley de Comercio de 1974, mecanismo que permite a Washington imponer sanciones comerciales cuando considera que un socio mantiene prácticas desleales. La Oficina del Representante Comercial de Estados Unidos argumentó que Brasil incurre en políticas que perjudican a empresas estadounidenses en áreas como el comercio digital, regulaciones ambientales y acceso al mercado. El gobierno brasileño rechazó esas acusaciones, calificó los aranceles como injustificados y anunció que responderá mediante los mecanismos previstos en su Ley de Reciprocidad Económica y, de ser necesario, ante la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC). La decisión tiene un peso considerable debido al tamaño de la relación económica bilateral. Según la Oficina del Censo de Estados Unidos, el intercambio comercial de bienes entre ambos países supera los US$90.000 millones anuales, mientras que, si se incluyen los servicios, la relación económica rebasa ampliamente los US$100.000 millones. Estados Unidos es uno de los principales destinos de las exportaciones brasileñas y Brasil representa el mayor mercado estadounidense en América del Sur. Miles de empresas mantienen inversiones cruzadas y cadenas de suministro integradas que ahora enfrentan un escenario de mayor incertidumbre. Uno de los elementos más relevantes del anuncio es que no todos los productos brasileños estarán sujetos al nuevo arancel. La administración Trump decidió excluir, por ahora, bienes estratégicos como el café, la carne bovina, las aeronaves y componentes aeronáuticos, además de otros productos ya cubiertos por regímenes comerciales específicos. Estas excepciones buscan reducir el impacto inmediato sobre industrias estadounidenses que dependen de insumos brasileños y evitar aumentos bruscos de precios para los consumidores. Sin embargo, sectores como maquinaria, muebles, azúcar, etanol, calzado y diversos productos manufacturados sí enfrentarán el nuevo gravamen, afectando aproximadamente el 18 % de las exportaciones brasileñas hacia Estados Unidos. Los analistas consideran que el impacto económico inmediato será moderado, pero advierten sobre efectos más amplios si la disputa continúa escalando. Las empresas exportadoras brasileñas podrían perder competitividad frente a proveedores de otros países, mientras que importadores estadounidenses tendrían que absorber parte del incremento en los costos o trasladarlo al consumidor final. Economistas también advierten que nuevas barreras comerciales pueden generar presiones inflacionarias en un momento en que la economía estadounidense continúa vigilando la evolución de los precios y las tasas de interés. Brasil ya comenzó a preparar una respuesta. El gobierno anunció un paquete de apoyo cercano a 13.300 millones de reales (aproximadamente US$2.600 millones) destinado a los sectores más afectados, especialmente productores agrícolas e industrias exportadoras. Paralelamente, funcionarios brasileños estudian medidas recíprocas que podrían incluir restricciones comerciales, acciones regulatorias contra empresas estadounidenses y la reactivación de disputas ante la OMC, aunque el Ejecutivo insiste en mantener abiertos los canales de negociación para evitar una guerra comercial de mayores proporciones. El conflicto también podría tener consecuencias para la industria del turismo y los viajes corporativos. Estados Unidos y Brasil mantienen uno de los mercados aéreos más importantes de América, con cientos de miles de pasajeros que viajan cada año por motivos de negocios, inversión, turismo y educación. Si la tensión comercial reduce las inversiones bilaterales o retrasa proyectos empresariales, es probable que disminuya parte de la demanda de viajes ejecutivos, congresos internacionales y reuniones comerciales, un segmento que genera ingresos significativos para aerolíneas, hoteles y centros de convenciones. Aunque el turismo vacacional difícilmente se verá afectado en el corto plazo, una desaceleración del comercio suele repercutir en el movimiento de viajeros de negocios, uno de los motores de la conectividad aérea entre ambos países. Más allá del impacto inmediato, varios especialistas consideran que el caso brasileño puede convertirse en un precedente para futuras acciones comerciales de Washington. La administración Trump ha dejado claro que continuará utilizando la política arancelaria como una herramienta de negociación económica y diplomática. Si otros socios comerciales enfrentan investigaciones similares bajo la Sección 301, el continente podría entrar en un nuevo periodo de incertidumbre para el comercio regional, con implicaciones que irían más allá de las exportaciones y alcanzarían la inversión, las cadenas logísticas y la recuperación del turismo internacional. |
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References: Reuters. (16 de julio de 2026). US imposes new 25% tariffs on Brazil, expands exemptions list. Reuters. (17 de julio de 2026). Brazil finance chief pledges reciprocity, not retaliation, after new U.S. tariffs. Reuters. (17 de julio de 2026). Brazil unveils credit package for rural sector hit by U.S. tariffs. Reuters. (16 de julio de 2026). US tariffs on Brazil are a bitter pill for sugar and ethanol makers. U.S. Census Bureau. Foreign Trade Statistics. |
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TravelDesk Finder (Find past news, advisories and travel trends here.) |
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Ruta Pantera's PanAmerica Investor Club
|
RuPa's PanAmerica Investor Club is an investment group designed to acquaint our
members with investor opportunities available in the hemisphere — North, Central and South America.
We have capitalized our fund with $282,000 US and will publish our
results here, updated on a weekly basis.
Please see our livecast, Rupa 2.0 ~ Make Your Connection, for episodes discussing club investments. |
| SYMBOL | NAME | CAP. | %ROI | Earned |
| NA | RuPa Stocks | $7.8K | 3.5% | $222 |
| NA | Real estate 1 | $50K | 19% | $15K |
| NA | Real estate 2 | $26K | 1% | $260 |
| OZK | CD #1 / 7-mo. | $100K | 4.2% | $500 |
| OZK | CD #2 / 7-mo. | $100K | 4.2% | $500 |
| --- | --- | $283.8K | 5.2% | $15K |
RuPa's Latin American Holdings: A Basket of ETFs and Other Funds
Summary: Surprising to us, our basket of Latin American ETFs and Closed-end funds
has performed well in a rather rocky market since November 1. Since the end of January, 2026 we
have twice pulled out of these funds and reinvested roughly $23,000 due to abrupt movements in the
market. We increased our profits on both occasions, for a total of about 6% ROI in past three months.
This performance has proved a lot better -- but with more risk -- than our CDs! We believe these funds represent a strong long-term hold,
but only for those with steel nerves; they have jumped around 2-5% almost weekly so far this year. Frankly,
we've been lucky and do not plan on increasing our minimal holding in them until the geopolitics of
the region settles down. One potential negative impact is the Trump Administration's predicted threats against
China's growing physical and financial presence in South America.
On the other hand, Real estate investing is proving to be a sound strategy, especially in Medellin, Colombia,
where we are considering the purchase a second apartment this month for $53,000, to be used as a shooting studio
for the company. The problem is the instability of the dollar...and the strength of the Colombian
peso! The owner wants to be paid over the course of two months, which puts us a risk if the dollar
continues to fall in value.
Lastly, our CDs are providing safe place to park capital while we're deciding what to do next, each earning about $500 per month.
Our investment club is created and maintained for entertainment and educational purposes only. We do not offer investment advice or recommend particular stocks, bonds, ETFs or any other investment product. Please refrain from asking Ruta Pantera staff to provide investment advice. Thank you.
COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA
BRASIL
ARGENTINA
COSTA RICA
NICARAGUA
MEXICO
PERU
BOLIVIA
URUGUAY
