 |
Pan American Experiences
|
------- |
The Latino vote is becoming a key factor in the race for the U.S. Congress. Photo by Edmond Dantès/Pexels.
It's Starting To Sound a Lot Like Christmas
The Expedition That Photographed the Amazon Before Anyone Knew What Was There
Swim With Sea Lions: A Wildlife Adventure to Santa Fe Island, Galápagos
|
HEMISPHERE ------------------------------------------940[BUSINESS FEATURE] | |||
Latino Vote in the US: The Battle for Power in 2026The Midterm Elections Will Test Latino Support for Trump and Reshape Congress, With the Economy and Immigration at the Center.By Estefanía Muriel for Ruta Pantera on 11/5/2026 7:09:19 AM |
||||
| What happens when a segment of the electorate that helped elect a president begins to question the results? On November 3, 2026, the United States will hold midterm elections to renew the House of Representatives and part of the Senate. In several close races, the behavior of Latino voters could tip the scales, especially in competitive districts in Texas, Arizona, and Colorado, according to the Associated Press.
To understand this phenomenon from a Latin American perspective, it is important to recognize that Latinos in the United States do not constitute a homogeneous political group. They include native-born citizens, naturalized immigrants, and families with diverse national roots, generations, religions, and economic experiences. In 2024, Donald Trump broadened his support among these voters, driven by concerns about the cost of living, safety, and immigration. The Pew Research Center (2024) shows that this shift challenged the notion that the Latino vote traditionally belongs to Democrats. However, electoral preferences can shift when campaign promises clash with everyday experience. Rising food, housing, and fuel prices, along with deportations and their impact on families and employment, are testing support for Trump. Polls for 2026 reflect growing discontent, though they don't guarantee an automatic return to the Democratic Party. The crucial question is whether this frustration will translate into votes, abstention, or a new redistribution of political preferences. Why Latino Voters Supported Trump in 2024 The economy was central to the election decision. During the 2024 campaign, many voters expressed concern about inflation and the cost of basic goods. Trump promised to improve economic conditions, reduce pressure on households, and restore security. According to the Pew Research Center (2024), 93% of Latino voters who supported Trump considered the economy a very important factor in their vote. The decision, therefore, reflected both material expectations and political affinities. Immigration also played a significant role, though not in the same way for everyone. Among Latinos who supported Trump, 71% considered this issue very important to their vote, according to the same study. Some supported stricter border control and distinguished between law enforcement and their own immigration experiences. Others identified with conservative values, religion, or the Republican discourse on security and entrepreneurship. Reducing their motivations to a single cause would obscure this diversity. The evolving relationship with the Democratic Party also played a role. Discontent with the Biden administration's economic policies, doubts about its ability to address working-class concerns, and a perceived cultural distance among some voters facilitated the Republican advance. The outcome did not mean that all Latino voters adopted a permanent conservative identity. In many cases, it was a pragmatic decision: to support the candidate from whom they expected economic improvement, stricter border control, or a change in policy. |
||||
|
Economy and Deportations: The Causes of Disenchantment With Trump
Price trends have become a political test for the White House. In October 2026, 86% of registered Latino voters considered the economy very important to their congressional vote, according to the Pew Research Center (2026). Furthermore, 74% stated that Trump's economic policies had worsened economic conditions. When families don't see the promised improvements in their budgets, electoral support can weaken, even among those who previously supported the president's other proposals. Immigration policy has added a personal dimension to this unease. Detentions and deportations affect not only those without legal immigration status, but also mixed-race families, communities, and businesses that depend on immigrant workers. In the October 2026 survey, 62% of registered Latino voters considered the administration's deportation efforts excessive. This concern doesn't necessarily imply opposition to all border regulations: for some, the difference lies in how the law is enforced and who it affects. Disenchantment does not equate to an ideological conversion in favor of the Democrats. A portion of the electorate may reject the Republican administration and continue to distrust the opposition, or even abstain. The Associated Press (2026) documented this uncertainty among voters in swing states, where inflation and the consequences of immigration policies dominate the conversation. For the campaigns, the challenge lies in demonstrating that their proposals can improve daily life, rather than simply exploiting the rejection of the opponent. Texas, Arizona, and Colorado: Where the Latino Vote Can Make a Difference South Texas offers a concrete example of electoral volatility. In the 15th district, which Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2014, a poll published by EL PAÍS on October 21, 2016, placed Democrat Bobby Pulido ahead of Republican Monica De La Cruz, with 51% to 44% among likely voters. Among Latinos surveyed, Pulido's lead was even greater. The result illustrates how presidential preferences are not always reflected in legislative elections (Corchado & Althaus, 2016). The Associated Press reports that in Arizona, Congressional District 6 pits Republican Juan Ciscomani against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza. In Colorado, District 8 features Republican Gabe Evans against Democrat Manny Rutinel. Both races reflect a competition in which candidates are appealing to their personal histories and local economic issues. The presence of Latino candidates in both parties also serves as a reminder that ethnicity does not automatically determine political affiliation or voting behavior. The outcome will depend on more factors than just the size of the Latino population. Voter turnout, the geographic distribution of voters, the characteristics of each district, and the campaigns' ability to mobilize undecided voters could all be decisive. In the Senate election, the Latino effect will also depend on the state and the closeness of the race; it is inaccurate to claim that it will determine every race. The evidence points to a potentially decisive influence in certain contests, not a predetermined national outcome. |
||||
Add this article to your favorites
[FOR MEMBERS ONLY]
Copy this link to send this article to a friend: [FOR MEMBERS ONLY] |
||||
|
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| |
|
|
|
|
×
|
||||
|
References: Associated Press. (2026, October 18). Latino voters helped give Trump a second term. What's their move now? APNews. https://apnews.com/article/latino-hispanic-voters-midterms-house-majority-e022e43e08124e8f279c858a110860d0 Corchado, A., & Althaus, D. (2026, October 21). Bobby Pulido gains ground in the battle to win back border voters who supported Trump . EL PAÍS. https://elpais.com/us/2026-10-21/bobby-pulido-saca-ventaja-en-la-batalla-por-reconquistar-a-los-votantes-de-la-frontera-que-apoyaron-a-trump.html Pew Research Center. (2024, September 24). In tight US presidential race, Latino voters' preferences mirror 2020 . https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/09/24/in-tight-us-presidential-race-latino-voters-preferences-mirror-2020/ Pew Research Center. (2025, November 24). Majorities of Latinos disapprove of Trump and his policies on immigration, economy . https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/11/24/majorities-of-latinos-disapprove-of-trump-and-his-policies-on-immigration-economy/ Pew Research Center. (2026, October 16). The economy is the top issue for Latino voters in the 2026 midterms . https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2026/10/16/the-economy-is-the-top-issue-for-latino-voters-in-the-2026-midterms/ Reuters. (2026, October 20). Three issues defining the 2026 US midterm elections . https://www.reuters.com/world/us/three-issues-defining-2026-us-midterm-elections-2026-10-20/ Pew Research Center. (2024, January 25). Americans more upbeat on the economy; Biden's job rating remains very low. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/americans-more-upbeat-on-the-economy-bidens-job-rating-remains-very-low/ |
||||
Please leave a comment about this article: 940 |
|
| Enter your email address: |
Your email will not be displayed. |
| Your nickname: | |
| Your comment: | |
| Was this article helpful to you? | |
|
|
|
Articles about exciting travel experiences in our hemisphere.
ADVENTURE
Cape Froward, Chile
BEACH & SUN
Welcome to the World’s Largest New Year’s Celebration
For those traveling from North, Central, or South America, New Year's Eve in Rio offers a rich narrative about how a city can transform a universal holiday into a unique celebration, rooted in local traditions and open to the world.
|
Experiences Finder
(Search our catalog of Experiences here.) |
|---|
