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Scientists Trace Heatwaves to Specific Fossil Fuel CompaniesBy Jazmin Agudelo for Ruta Pantera on 10/16/2025 8:29:03 AM |
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| In the scorching summer of 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada endured an unprecedented heatwave, with temperatures soaring to 49.6°C (121°F) in Lytton, British Columbia—a record shattered within hours before a wildfire razed the village, killing at least two and displacing thousands. This event, which claimed hundreds of lives across the region, was no mere weather anomaly but a harbinger of the climate crisis. For the first time, scientists have drawn a direct line from such disasters to the carbon emissions of individual fossil fuel companies, revealing that giants like ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco made events like this “virtually impossible” without their pollution. Published in Nature on September 10, 2025, a groundbreaking study analyzes 213 global heatwaves from 2000 to 2023, attributing up to half of their intensity to climate change driven by these “carbon majors.” This scientific leap not only clarifies corporate responsibility but opens the door to massive lawsuits, potentially forcing these titans to pay for the damages caused. | ||||
| Imagine a world where victims of deadly heatwaves can sue not an abstract “climate change” but the boardrooms of Houston or Riyadh. This study, led by Yann Quilcaille of ETH Zurich, marks a quantum leap in extreme event attribution (EEA), a field that until now linked weather phenomena to global emissions but rarely to specific actors. With implications that could redefine climate accountability, this article breaks down the scientific findings, striking examples, and the looming legal battles. If climate change is a crime, these companies may soon face trial as the prime suspects. The Science of Attribution: From Emissions to Heatwaves Climate attribution has evolved rapidly since the 2010s, when the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative began quantifying how global warming makes extreme events more likely and severe. The new study scales this methodology to an industrial level, using a systematic framework to pinpoint the footprint of 180 “carbon majors”—companies and state entities responsible for 57% of cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions since 1854, including land use. These include oil giants like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Saudi Aramco, as well as coal producers like the former Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China. The method is rigorous and multifaceted. Researchers first selected 213 heatwaves from the EM-DAT disaster database, covering events that caused at least one death or affected over 100 people. For each, they compared the current world to the preindustrial era (1850–1900) using statistical models like the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and multiple lines of evidence, including ERA5 reanalysis data and CMIP6 models. This revealed that climate change increased the average intensity of all heatwaves by +1.68°C (3.02°F) between 2010 and 2019, and their likelihood by 20 times in the first decade of the century and 200 times in the second. The innovative core lies in breaking down individual contributions. Using the reduced-complexity OSCAR model, researchers calculated CO2 and CH4 emissions from each carbon major based on production records and emission factors. They then applied “All-But-One” (excluding one entity) and “Add-One-to-None” (adding one) approaches to isolate impacts, averaged to handle nonlinearities. Granger causality tests confirmed that the rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST) is a causal indicator for 95% of events, with a goodness-of-fit validating 213 of 226 initial heatwaves. The results are chilling: emissions from carbon majors account for 50% of the increase in heatwave intensity since the preindustrial era. The top 14 majors—including the former USSR (coal), China (coal), Saudi Aramco (oil), and ExxonMobil—contribute 30% of all cumulative CO2 emissions and added 0.47°C to 2023’s warming. Even smaller emitters, like Russia’s Elgaugol, made 16 heatwaves (8%) at least 10,000 times more likely. In essence, without these emissions, many of the worst heatwaves of the 21st century would not have occurred or would have been far less destructive. Striking Examples: From Theory to Reality The study doesn’t linger in abstraction; it paints a global map of attributable tragedies. Take the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave: climate change made it 3.1°C hotter (range 1.4–5.1°C) and over 10,000 times more likely, with ExxonMobil significantly contributing to its occurrence. This event, which killed approximately 1,400 people in the U.S. and Canada, illustrates how past emissions—from extraction to combustion—translate into present-day deaths. Another case: the 2003 France heatwave, which claimed 70,000 lives, became 10,000 times more likely due to warming driven by majors like Chevron and Gazprom. In India, the May 2006 heatwave (the least amplified, with only a 22% increase in likelihood) still reflects global contributions, while the 2022 southern India heatwave, which exacerbated droughts and crop failures, ties directly to Saudi Aramco, whose emissions made 51 similar events at least 10,000 times more likely. In eastern China, the 2013 heatwave, affecting millions, highlights the role of local coal producers. Globally, 55 of the 213 heatwaves (26%) became at least 10,000 times more likely, with the former USSR leading by making 53 such events possible. These figures underscore an injustice: while vulnerable communities in Africa and South America suffer underreported impacts (the study notes EM-DAT biases), the profits of these companies flow to distant shareholders. Clair Barnes, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, warns, “While it gives a clear picture of the effect of fossil fuel emissions on global temperatures, the real-world impacts are likely far worse.” | ||||
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