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Lula Facing the Rise of Flávio Bolsonaro

By Heydi Bernal for Ruta Pantera on 10/6/2026 11:36:15 AM

Brazil’s presidential election has entered a far more uncertain phase than pre-election polling suggested. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in the October 4 first round with 47.03% of the vote, compared with 45.16% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The margin was only 1.87 percentage points, but it transformed the right-wing candidate into a serious contender for the October 25 runoff.

The result was particularly significant because Lula had maintained an advantage in many pre-election polls. A Datafolha survey published shortly before the vote had Lula ahead of Flávio, 48% to 45%, within the margin of error. The first-round result showed that support for Bolsonaro’s candidate had been underestimated.

Lula now needs to attract voters who supported eliminated candidates, mobilize potential abstainers, and recover support in key states. Turnout could be decisive. Abstention reached one of its highest levels in decades, leaving a large pool of voters who could determine the final result.

Flávio enters the runoff with more than a narrow numerical advantage. The right also made significant gains in Congress, demonstrating that the political movement built around the Bolsonaro name retains considerable strength even without Jair Bolsonaro on the ballot.

The so-called “Dark Horse” also enters the final stage surrounded by controversy. Flávio has faced questions over his connection to the financing of a film intended to portray his father favorably, in an investigation involving a banker accused of a multibillion-dollar fraud. Flávio denies wrongdoing. So far, the controversy has not prevented his electoral advance.

For Lula, the central challenge is that the runoff will no longer be about who starts as the favorite, but about who can build a majority. The president retains a strong electoral base and a significant advantage in regions such as the Northeast, but he faces voters who are also expressing a strong desire for change. Flávio, meanwhile, must turn that dissatisfaction into a majority without generating enough opposition among moderate voters to stop his momentum.

The outcome will have implications beyond Brazil. A Flávio Bolsonaro victory would once again move Brazil closer to the Latin American right and could strengthen its relationship with Donald Trump. A Lula victory would preserve Brazil as one of the region’s principal political counterweights to that trend.

Lula can still win. But after the first round, the question is no longer whether Flávio Bolsonaro can defeat him. It is whether Lula can stop his advance.

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